weathernet
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 30 2007 09:30 PM
Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida

As Mike mentioned correctly earlier today, some pressure falls have been noted in the Bahamas. In addition, a swirl was noticable on vis. sat. today, and duly noted per Miami National Weather Service Forecast Discussion from earlier today -

".....Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

000
FXUS62 KMFL 301845
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...A LOW CLOUD SWIRL IS ANALYZED EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. BETWEEN THAT LOW AND
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA IS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL
FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF MONDAY ...."

From where I sit, this small surface vorticity along with the strong high pressure ridge may well continue to enchance S. Florida's wet and windy weather, but if in fact there is to be any tropical cyclone development to occur from within this "tropical constipation", than I believe it will yet come from this same area of disturbed weather east of Florida. In coming days I still anticipate some development perhaps to retrograde westward towards South or Central Florida, but not from this weak transient low level swirl. Will be interesting to see if pressures continue to fall east of Fla.