MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
107 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

VALID OCT 02/1200 UTC THRU OCT 06/0000 UTC

DEEP/POSSIBLY SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO...
THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON ITS VARIOUS SOLUTIONS OVER ITS
PAST 2 TO 3 DAYS OF RUNS...WITH A LONG TERM TREND TOWARDS
WEAKENING SEEN ON THE NAM AND CANADIAN. ENOUGH OF A BREAK IN THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST ALONG THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN
US GULF COAST TO EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IDEA FITS THE GFS SOLUTION BEST
WHICH IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE 09Z COMBINED SREF MEMBER
SPREAD...WHICH AGREES FAIRLY WELL WITH THE NOON MEDIUM RANGE
CONFERENCE CALL WITH NHC. ITS CENTRAL PRESSURE SHOULD BE
CLOSEST...IF NOT DEEPER THAN...THE NAM CONSIDERING ITS CURRENT
CENTRAL PRESSURE AND ITS EXPECTED CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT 2-3 DAYS. SEE THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM TPC CONCERNING THIS FEATURE

Let just do this one more time......

POSSIBLE LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...
POSSIBLE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN FRIDAY MORNING...
THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A NEW LOW...SIMILAR IN
ORIGIN TO THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT
THIS TIME AS WELL AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 IN LATE SEPTEMBER...IS
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE NAM HAS A
WEAK SYSTEM THAT MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST...BUT IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND A SECOND CYCLONE FORMING IN
THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ECMWF HAS NO SYSTEM WHATSOEVER.
SINCE THE MERIDIONAL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN BY FRIDAY...A CLOSED CYCLONE
UNDER ITS BASE IS EXPECTED. ADDING TO THE PROBABILITY OF THIS
CYCLONES FORMATION ARE TELECONNECTIONS...WHICH SHOW A 225-250
METER POSITIVE ANOMALY NEAR 45N 75W...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER CYCLONE ABOUT 20 DEGREES TO ITS SOUTH NEAR THE
25TH PARALLEL. WILL FAVOR A WEAKENED VERSION OF THE GFS/CANADIAN
PER THE NOON MEDIUM RANGE CONFERENCE CALL WITH NHC.