Looking at early a.m. 0Z data comin' in. Boy! I see whatcha mean regarding CMC. Canadian wants to lay down a Cat 4 on Duval Street! Well, saw that and immediately assumed we here in S. Florida were safe and moreso, probably a great weekend to go fishing! But then, saw both GFS and NAM pretty much in agreement on what would looks like a T.D. in the Florida Straits in about 48 hours or so. Given other model continuity, I pretty much have a fair amount of confidence in GFS, at 96hr. or less. Lately NAM has trended systems too deep, while GFS more shallow. Most interesting however was the 0Z GFDL run on 92L. Again, assuming some model conformity, perhaps an even better tool for tropical cyclongenesis. GFDL looks to place a slow moving Tropical Storm just southeast of the Florida Keys in about 54 hours, with a coarse heading closer to 270 rather than WSW. A slow moving and broad system such as GFDL depicts, would'nt shake too many coconuts off the trees, but sure could drop about 6"-12" of rain over large areas of S. Fla.

Given all this, and the upper anticyclone over the Bahamas, am a little puzzled as to some appearant lack of "mojo" thus far. Would've anticipated we'd be seeing a more unified consolodation of convection by now. Granted, only today have we started to see some pressure falls in the Bahamas, but if we are to see some development out of this Bahamas system, than would expect a fairly significant upswing in this systems overall cloud structure within 24 hours. Perhaps no evident low or mid level turning by then, but certainly a greater consolodation of convection perhaps indicative of continued slow pressure falls.