This new "ITCZ" draped over the Greater Antilles, from the Leewards, westward to Cuba, then south into the W. Carib., is really taking some getting used to. Kidding of course, but you know the 'ol expression......"crap or get off the pot" ( PG version ); Well the practically daily ups and downs of these "tropical microclones", are driving me crazy. No, don't bother looking THAT one up either, I just coined it LOL. Of course once again, the area north of Puerto Rico shows some promise, but then again, and just as I am writing this........YEP! There goes the convection?! Well, perhaps will fire up again later tonight, but sure is looking a little more healthy today and this evening. Latest 18Z run of GFS does initialize a low in the vicinity, and very slowly deepens it, as it barely drifts west, right up to when a deep mid-Atlantic trough drops SSW'ward just in time to grab it. Not sure if I buy into that though. Either will finally and actually see some consistant development here, and then looking at the 500mb, cannot see how this would not nearly immediatly start moving generally westward. If so, than would be 5-10 degrees farther west than progged by GFS in 48 to 54 hours. On the other hand, should this just prove to be another transient burst of convection, than would be a moot point anyway.
Be interesting to see if we even have "status quo" 6 hours from now, along with any re-bursting of convection in the same general locale, north of P.R.................... no bets here....