Cat 5orBust
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 28 2007 09:31 AM
Re: Late October Tropical Depression 16 Forms in Caribbean Sea

just from the naked eye without looking very carefully at the system this morning, it appears to have a slightly more west movement than north at the moment even though it is not very clear where the exact center is located. from various accounts the further west it gets the better chance it has to strengthen due to the heat content and less interaction with land. in looking at the models this morning i find it a bit baffling that some of these models hook it to the northeast as early as they do. several take it nnw then turn it through the central bahamas. i honestly dont know what they are seeing to cause it to move more northerly so early in the period. i know a trough should be coming down in about 4 days which will eventually turn it northeast, but i am not totally buying the northerly component and the early hook scenario at this moment. obviously when recon gets in there later the models will have a better idea. the only question that needs to be answered really is how far west will this get before the turn commences and if it does get further west then we may have a stronger storm on our hands and obviously more of a threat to florida.

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