| ChessieStorm |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 30 2007 02:05 PM |
Re: There is an "H" in the NHC's track
|
Quote:
I want to ask a very basic "newbie/ignoramus" question here: from the NHC projections I assume that there is some event (cold/dry front?) which is supposed to do two things tomorrow night:
1) weaken Noel back to a TS
2) push it in a Northeastern direction
How confident are the knowledgeable forum members that this will actually occur? How much uncertainty, if any, is there over this? What are the chances of this *not* happening (and, thus a CAT1 heading for Florida)?
Noel turning a little more west was not what the NHC expected, but with that said a turn to the north and then northeast is probably in the works. Over central Florida since Saturday we've had a boundary disect the state. Winds where I am are strong out of the northeast. Those northeast winds extend down into south Florida which says any system coming towards Florida will be pushed off to the northeast instead of striking Florida.
As some have said as well, WV shows upper level winds northeast down through Cuba and the western Carribean. Unless this thing does the totally unexpected, Noel should get going northeast and away from Florida and the united States.