Just to add to the curious data, contrary to that which would support a northward turn - 0Z run of GFS at 18hr. ( looking at the 500mb level ), clearly shows the short wave in question over the W. Great Lakes region. At the same time, under the zonal flow, comes "Mr. Texas 500mb High" poking his head with an advancement eastward from 18hrs to 48 hours plus. From 18 hours on, the steering level flow is FROM the north in the eastern Gulf, off Key West, and around 80W just south of Cuba. This flow is maintained for a couple of days thereafter. The only component that I can see that would influence a northward motion, is the same one which has yet to bring Noel to such fruition - the 200mb level. Especially given the more shallow system now that Noel is somewhat spread out, and having spent time enjoying the delicious but weighty Arroz con Pollo from Cuba, how does one make a logical case for an immediate turn?