danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 31 2007 02:12 AM |
|
Heads Up
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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT WED OCT 31 2007
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z ( 8 AM EDT Wed to 8 AM EDT Thursday)
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE NWD TOWARD SE FL TODAY... VEERING NNEWD AND ACCELERATING TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE TROPICAL STORM WILL AFFECT
SERN FL TODAY AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE AS OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS OF THE SYSTEM GRAZE THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SE FL MAINTAIN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS SRN FL WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK... THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY HAVE A MARGINAL TORNADO POTENTIAL.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM REACHES ITS CLOSEST DISTANCE FROM THE FL COAST.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT WED OCT 31 2007
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTHEASTERN STATES...
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE TRACK OF NOEL...IT
APPEARS MOST PROBABLE THAT THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF VEERING AWAY FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD NEGATE ANY
APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT TO SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREAS.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/