Well, I'm going to go a tiny bit out on a limb here and speculate that the LLC has been pulled in closer to the incredibly deep and rather large flareup of convection within the MLC so far tonight, and, based on an assortment of IR channels plus the radar out of Camaguey, I want to estimate the center to have been tugged nearly due north, to around 22N 78W, as of 3AM EDT. It appears that the LLC is elongated SSW-NNE, and clearly may already be feeling a hint of pulling and stretching.. but not by the trof, which is still back in the GOM, but by the interaction with the MLC flareups and whatever last vestige of the old ULL still exists, I suspect.

Should this more or less be the case, the LLC is essentially back over water, or very nearly so. Lots and lots of data already suggest that Noel could possibly be several MPH "stronger" than the advisory calls for, and perhaps once recon gets back in there, this verifies, as NHC left things at 40 for both the 11PM and 2AM, when the center was arguably mostly well-inland.