excuse me for wondering here but... from the loops ive seen this morning Noel is intensifying and or... expanding into a larger ball and despite supposed shear it seems rounder and more filled in on the west side

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-rgb.html

as for beach conditions, ill post them elsewhere when I get back from the beach at lunch (a block away on sobe) but...

this has had steady build up of convection and we are talking a storm very close to land and even the slightest shift in track can make a big difference .. even more so combined with change in intensity

difference between hype and playing it safe

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-rgb.html