The NHC did an "ok" job, I mean Noel was really not that easy to predict. Seems like Noel might ramp up into a Hurricane before it goes Extratropical. With how deep the convection is with Noel, you could say this resembled a Western Pacific system. Noel should continue the NNE motion for a while until it really starts to feel the trough which is swinging through the Northeast fo the USA right now. You can really see it on water vapor.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/wv-l.jpg

Here's the current steering map for Noel (990- 999 mlb)
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html

This is why I see a NNE motion for the afternoon.. still needs to catch that trough.. wouldn't be surprised if the 2 p.m. has it moving back to the north. We'll see what happens with Noel as it should recurve either tonight or tommorow morning.
lasly, I want to note that there is a moderate Anticyclone over the storm, the same one that we saw in the Western Carribean..
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

You can see the strong clockwise motion.. This is a good reason why shear isn't destroying it