Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sat Nov 03 2007 04:39 AM
Re: Noel Becomes a Hurricane, Races North Northeast

Noel's long since gone extratropical, but recon is flying a mission in the storm this evening. It's quite the interesting mission, as you don't often see them with transitioning -- yet alone transitioned -- systems. The center is very broad with 976-977mb pressures widespread from 32.5N to 34N in the 71-72W longitude band. Still a warm core at flight-level (640mb) with inner core temps near +9C and outer core temps around +5-6C, so I'm guessing we're seeing a warm seclusion taking place with Noel. This would be in the GFDL/CMC/HWRF camp and somewhat away from the GFS camp from the past couple of days' worth of model runs.

For those curious, the most recent report (0427z) suggests peak surface winds at 75kt with max flight level winds in the 65-70kt range. These max surface winds are well away from the center; southeastern quadrant, 150+ km from the center, somewhat broad but not overly so. All in all, the thermal and wind fields are very much akin to what we'd expect to see with a warm seclusion.



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