cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Nov 07 2007 03:46 PM
Re: Winding Down

A case could probably be made for having upgraded 92L already.. but, it would have been a generous call. For several cycles now SAB assigned ST 2.5/2.5 to 92L, however today, the last one came in at only ST 1.5. This actually looks to be more related to 92L having acquired some slight tropical characteristics. In that process, the baroclinic kick, if you will, lessened. Curiously, if this trend continues, 92L may eventually have more chance of becoming a numbered tropical depression than it has had of becoming a named subtropical storm. Stranger things have happened.

Global models generally want to send 92L off on a loop-d-loop south of the Azores. During this event a few of them have been hinting at further enhancement of a shallow to moderate warm core. So, there is some lukewarm model support for this trend to persist long enough for something more significant to happen. A glance at he environment looks to confirm these model projections, but is nothing to bet the farm on.



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