The gfs keeps coughing and nudging everybody's collective side with a northward-moving west-Caribbean sort of feature at the end of the month. I'm starting to pay attention, since run after run it keeps showing up. It might be some sort of MJO-induced flareup... haven't looked into that, but know the Indian ocean cyclone at month's beginning and subsequent Westpac activity has been that sort of thing.
Always have to be suspicious about things the models show trying to emerge in that neck of the woods, since oftentimes they tend to get shoved westward into the Pacific... or just sorta wallow over Central America and never organize. GFS has been surprisingly adamant about something trying to be there, though; starting around Memorial Day something might try to cook off.
HF 1415z18may