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On IR it appears that Bertha's motion has been mainly westward over the last 5 hours, just north of the models and NHC forecast points, but no real surprise as these things tend to wobble along a mean track. If the motion continues Bertha may fall back in line with, and even a little south of, the NHC forecast points. IR cloud temps around the center have fallen too and Bertha looks slightly less symmetric, although the circulation appears more vigorous. The new 00Z GFS has Bertha stall out in the western Atlantic around 25-30N and 70W in days 5-7 (Sat.-Mon). Should make for an interesting next few days. |