danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Jul 09 2008 05:15 PM
Discussion Heads Up

The Position History For Hurricane Bertha (2008) can be found on this page here:
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormhistory.php?storm=2&year=2008
It gives compass headings, rather than degree headings.

Bottom half of the Latest Discussion on Bertha. Models are having a rough time beyond 72 hours.

HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2008 (edited~danielw)

...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...300/10.
BERTHA SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW TURN NORTHWARD
DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE
CURRENTLY NEAR BERMUDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST.

BEYOND 72
HOURS...THE TRACK BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN AS THE SHORTWAVE IS
NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PICK UP THE CYCLONE.
RATHER...IT LEAVES
BERTHA BEHIND IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SLOW
AND ERRATIC MOTION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST.
TRACK MODELS HAVE
NOT DEMONSTRATED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
AS A RESULT...THE
NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND LIES WEST
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW WHETHER BERTHA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/091440.shtml



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