| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Jul 14 2008 07:41 PM |
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things
|
Quote:Quote:
It is simply and most likely a matter of getting a nice sustained convection concentrate, which is probably a matter of time.
What's causing the delay, do you think, John?
I mean, Bertha formed extremely quickly, and in an environment that I didn't think was that much better than 94L.. yet 94L is making very little progress thusfar, despite favorable conditions.
I think this particular storm is on schedule for what models were depicting, actually, a few days ago. The mystery in the models is why they are lost at the moment when clearly there is at least some steady improvement, albeit slow upon the hour. I wouldn't worry about that though, if you are an enthusiast for seeing these things on the map.
You have to remember that Bertha had a closed low robustly spinning upon leaving the African continent. Bertha was also pretty much a fantastic anomaly, actually, this one is too for that matter. One's an accident, but two? A bit intriguing and there's a physical/causal relationship to some back ground signal that really wants to get a CV season underway at least excuse imaginable. If we get a 3rd (which the 12z CMC suggests) that's a slam dunk and this season has something unique about it.
That said, 94L was a weak wave really when it came off Africa... In fact, we should really be more amazed that it has stoked that much momentum from so little.
John