| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jul 14 2008 08:22 PM |
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things
|
Quote:
You know, the cyclonic curl today is more evident than it was yesterday during the convection flaring. Yesterday the low along the TW axis was being assessed at 1009mb....today 1008mb...so despite its lack of pretty red hues on IR...it's a stronger system; granted at a very slow pace. Let's see how the nocturnal typology unfolds. Wouldn't shock me to see some additional stuff flaring later...
That's definately true. Yesterday, the big question in my mind was if there was a circulation (at any level)... I figured, give it until morning when the visible loop will show if there is a circulation. So, this morning, the visible loop did indeed show a pretty decently defined LLC, but the convection was all but gone. Now, there is a VERY small hint of moisture right near the LLC (on water vapor) but nowhere else. When does the nocturnal maxima happen for where the system is now?
Newest TWO admits that convection has "decreased a little this evening. However...environmental conditions appear favorable for development...and this system still has the potential to become at tropical depression later tonight or Tuesday as it moves west-northwestward at 15 mph."
I'd say Tuesday is 100% more likely than later tonight.