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Quote: Saharan dust is not the culprit, if that helps. There really is not enough evidence that this system has been contaminated by that particular form of toxicity. This system was weak originally, a weak wave that had very little momentum while east of the Windwards. It did gain though, via a favorable large scale environment, which guided good convective explosions; such that upon entering the eastern Caribbean, and despite climatology, it gained some, but at that time 95L was in the western Caribbean. That was problematic because the outflow from all that unorganized convection was creating west to northwesterly shear, and this substantially retarded growth potential. Now that 95L is removed from the field, we've seen better convection displays since, but it became very much like starting over again. Bottom line...timing of evolution of environmental factors - not including SAL (Saharan Air Layer) - are the main reasons. It should be noted that most models do suggest development from these time points and looking forward. John |