cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 02 2008 02:49 PM
Re: Wave Watching

Getting a look at the new visible images out this morning --

Invest 99L is looking surprisingly healthy this morning, and has even started to rate T numbers again. The most recent out of SAB is a T of 1.0, which really looks like it might be raised again come their next update in a few hours.

So far today 99L (old 98) has chased off any dry air intrusions like a champ. It might have a window of 2-3 days before shear would have a chance to force in gobs more dry air, to ramp up. If it can create an upper-level anticyclone within this window, shear may be reduced a great deal going forward.

NRL already has 99's winds up at 30 knots, and just a little more organized convection could earn 99 a number, and perhaps even a name, in short order.

90L is still gliding through a favorably moist atmosphere with shear generally under 25 knots, to as little as 10-15 knots. It is currently analyzed at about 1009mb.

While not a wave, I'm thinking it's time to mention something a little bit closer to home. An old, decaying frontal boundary that attempted to work up a surface low just south of Louisiana earlier this past week, but went inland before anything could really take, has slid back out over the northern GOM. Upper-level high pressure is expected to have a chance to build over this festering old frontal feature during the next few days, and it could try to pull something off with little notice. This is one of the most favored methods of tropical cyclogenesis in this part of the Atlantic.



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