well we got the official low now... Special Statement was issued just a little bit ago... good thing about recon... they'll have plenty of fuel to burn on this area... so we should have good data for tonights 00Z runs...

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ...............

i was off by about 8-12 hrs... in thinking the low would make it down to the surface...

darn

and the image above post dy daniel.. from last night is where the mid level low center made it down to the surface in my opinion.... with pressure's already being low... didn't take much... SST's are very warm in that area... south of PNS. The general thinking on my part... northern TX coast landfall?