typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Tue Aug 12 2008 10:30 PM
Re: Looking Around the Basin


The SE shear that had been impacting the broad circulation of 92L appears to have weakened considerably in the last 6 hours. The 10 to 15 kt shear vectors have reduce uniformly to around 5 kts.

There is a clear attempt at a "coring" of rotation, and there is even a small persistent cluster of deep convection near this perceived axis of rotation.

Some tropical models, such as the GFDL, are quite robust with intensity out in time. In fact, the 18z run ramps up 92L all the way to 121kts at 120 hours, in the Bahamas! This can't be an official call; however, I do not really see any big mitigators to development looking forward, as the TW (or depression) moves WNW.

As far as 93L goes, the water temperatures where this TW(s) is, are marginal actually... That combined with a touch of SAL contamination is probably why a clear and vigorous rotation is unable to find convection. It may just be a matter of time.



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