It has a "rounder" look tonight again, convection flaring up strongly. One more strong bout with shear and then it has a better environment for development.

High is building in above it and the real piece of the puzzle as to what it does once it has a name is the strong frontal system pulling down from Canada this week/end. Over and over this summer we have storms come down on the same basic trajectory. Last night there were tornado warnings in Alabama, tonight Northern Florida. Jax had strong weather.. This is going to set up a scenario and a lot will depend on where and when this storm is and where that low is coming down towards Florida that shows what direction they race towards each other.

Timing is everything here. And, while it doesn't look like much tonight it will look better soon enough and we shouldn't be lulled into a false sense of security because this is calling for close in development much like Jeanne who didn't get her act together until she had moved into a closer in area vs mid-Atlantic.

The models are consistent and this storm has consistently followed the models.. something to remember while looking at a somewhat poor satellite presentation.

Across Florida, the Straits or paralleling the coast is too far away to predict.. it's at least 5 to 6 days away.

Puts the NHC under the gun to get good info on this storm. Imagine the Gulfstream Jet will go out as soon as they have a verified storm.