Recon spit out a 993 mb sfc. pressure reading just a few minutes ago in the latest vortex message, a drop of 4 mb since the 5 p estimate. With the radar presentation improving, showing a nearly closed eye-like feature of about 50 mi width (though recon did not consider it to be an eye), Fay could well strengthen some before moving inland. The large size and relative coolness of the near-coastal waters may hinder that somewhat, though.

Jason and I, needless to say, are hoping at the 12z ECMWF track does not verify. There's still a very good chance Fay ends up in the Gulf in some form, particularly if the ridge is stronger than the other models forecast, but we want no part of the model's forecast. Independent of that, though, this will be a heavy rainfall event for many along the I-10 corridor from west of Jacksonville through to Pensacola or Mobile in the next few days.