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The projected paths seem to vary greatly. What, in the next several days will be steering this storm? I, too, was spared the worst of Fay. It just seems unusual that the plots vary so much.
Mostly, it's the lack of initial data being put into the models. That should be corrected soon as more data on the system starts coming in. Looking at the WV loops, there is a trough moving eastward north of TD7/Gustav and then some anticyclonic flow over Florida (outflow from Fay, apparently). The NHC track looks about right for now. Of course, as time progresses, that will be refined.
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Re: Development in Central Caribbean Likely Today