This was a TS yesterday I feel. There was a west wind at Flamingo near Aruba yesterday but there was no recon to confirm nor any bouys to support this. Anyways with that said, the pressure didnt drop from 1007mb to just above 995 in 12hrs, probably was around 1002-1004mb last night and pressure droped in the early morning hours to the current level. The main circulation was just above the surface though winds at the surface yesterday were in excess of 50kts. Now the strongest winds are from the SSW near 64kts. Unless interaction with Haiti occurs earlier than expected (tonight) then there is no reason to feel this isnt a hurricane on the next recon mission later tonight before landfall.
Track should take this near the eastern coast of Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, after that, it just matters on the strength of the ridge, a general west-WNW movement around a ridge over the bahamas-florida will take place, but we dont know yet forsure if this will be on the N or S side of Cuba. The NHC track looks alright for now, especially up to 48hrs. We'll have better confidence after 48hrs on where this will go and who it will affect by Weds.