danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Tue Aug 26 2008 08:22 AM
Things that go bump in the Night

Gustav is going to raise many flags at the next Advisory.
It appears to have spun up in 24 hours from a "Special Trop. Disturbance" to an 80 mph Hurricane. I feel certain that the system was probably a Tropical Depression on Sunday and possibly a Tropical Storm on Sunday Night. Without RECON in there to confirm the NHC decided to hold off on the upgrade.

Gustav has raised my concern level a notch or two since yesterday. While the 80mph doesn't surprise me the change in the current Forecast Track is a bit surprising.
First, It places nearly the whole FL Peninsula in the Eastern Semicircle ( bad side) once the storm enters the GOM.

Second. While the current track (heading) is aimed at the Mouth of the Ms River. It still leave a large area for the storm to intensify and turn coastbound. Current extrapolated track is toward the SW FL Coastline and on toward Appalachicola area. This has changed a bit from the 11 AM advisory on Monday. At that time the extrrap. was aimed at the Mouth of the MS River.
Extrap. tend to move a great deal from Advisory to Advisory. Due to the Storm changing the location of the center or changes in heading direction.
(Extrap. is the black dashed line seen on the model maps.)


Once Gustav enters the GOM the forward speed and radius of winds will dictate how soon the Watches and Warnings go up.

Labor Day weekend could be spent glued to the tv's and radios. Instead of the sand and picnic tables.




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