Josh Delsman
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Aug 26 2008 08:44 AM
Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati

I think it would be unwise at this point to say that Florida is completely out of the equation. There is still over 225 NM and 300NM of average forecast error on either side of the position points for days 4 and 5, respectively. Should the high pressure that is forecast to build on top of Gustav not be as strong as anticipated, there could be a rather large shift in track and intensity. The official discussion this morning said that the models still have to become more stable before they become more confident in their forecast. Let's not cast a shadow of a doubt that this storm isn't less predictable than any of the rest.


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