Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sat Sep 06 2008 01:18 PM
Re: New Orleans again?!

The previous vortex message was corrected to indicate a 959mb central pressure, not 953 mb. Ike is probably a little stronger than 110 mph right now, but some of the really high winds reported earlier were probably associated with transient features that aren't representative of the system's intensity. Ike's satellite presentation isn't the greatest right now, but it seems to be at least holding its own.

Someone was asking about the CLP5 model above... I believe that model is strictly based on climatology, i.e. what past storms have done (on average) when they were in roughly the same position. By definition, it is a "no skill" forecast. It is mainly used for comparison with other models... if a model can't do a lot better than climatology, then it is no good. It has little actual use in forecasting individual storms.

Ike seems to have taken on a slightly more westerly track (as opposed to WSW) in the last few hours, but that is not long enough to determine a long-term trend.

edit: the most recent apparent flight-level fixes from the HDOBs suggest that a little more southerly component has resumed.



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