Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Sep 10 2008 01:49 AM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

For those interested in the reformation of the core, the eye is clearly visible on:

Key West Radar
Cuban Radar
IR Satellite
Microwave 85GHz Polarization Corrected Temperature

Additionally, the system appears to be flaring convection in two outer spiral bands to the SE and to the NW. At the same time, it appears to be shedding outer convection outside these two spiral bands.

Last, the hurricane hunter is continuing to report little to no change in central pressure per HDOB data, and flight level wind maximas appear to be quite low. The central pressure supports significantly higher winds than are being found in the central core. In fact, SFMR has not recently detected any hurricane force winds on a storm that has a pressure that should indicate category 2 winds should be found.

This is a storm badly disrupted by Cuba, but very much intact organizationally. It's satellite appearance appears typical of a storm much stronger than we are seeing, and with the convection flaring and a definite eye developing, it has all the characteristics of significant restrengthening over the next dozen hours. Unlike Gustov that came off Cuba with bad disruption in the core and having been ripped apart organizationally, Ike is showing none of these signs of further deterioration, and in fact is showing the opposite results.

It is simply amazing to see a storm that has been over land so long stay so intact.

Edit: And soon after I post this, recon HDOB detected 64kt surface winds via SFMR - that's the minimum for hurricane force, so it's definitely back to a category 1 storm. Too long enough for the plane to find winds that strong...and in the Western eyewall too. Wonder what the E and NE have by now - probably stronger.



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