LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 10 2008 12:41 PM
Re: 7am EDT EYE Drop

Good. The Gulfstream Jet is I think the most powerful tool we have currently. More valuable than the models as the models are only as good as the information plugged into them and with the data from the gulfstream jet we are less likely to have garbage out but a clearer picture of the evolving atmospheric choices Ike has down the road.

It's nice to look at long range 5 day forecasts but if you don't get the 1 and 2 day right the models and track of the 45 day are wrong. Gulfstream Jet is the best.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

The water vapor loop this morning looks vastly different from yesterday at this time.

And, he is not jogging n of forecasted points he is now officially going NW though the bend back to the wnw is still expected. After sampling the atmosphere around the storm we may get a clearer more definitive opinion if the NW movement is real or a temporary jog.

Lastly... forward speed is a real issue here. It creeps up on you. It went steady 14 mph and 13 for days and as steadily slowed down to 8. Near 8. That s l o w forward speed and deviation from his usual nature over the last week is something that needs to be addressed and watched carefully.

Let's deal with Ike and not imagine it as Katrina or the 1900 Galveston Hurricane. Let's deal with today and what Ike is telling us about where he is going please.



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