Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 11 2008 01:46 AM
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued

Ike is an interesting storm, with a well-defined outer eyewall of about 80-90 nm radius and a reasonably well-defined inner eyewall of about 10 nm radius. The pressure keeps falling, but the wind field is not responding because of this dual eyewall structure. Conventional satellite shows a deep mass of convection atop the center of circulation, but there are also hints of dry air intrusion just outside of this. Due to the thermodynamics behind this and the lack of organization of this tight inner core, the pressure falls are not leading to a significant increase in maximum winds.

Instead, the pressure gradient -- the primary driver of the winds -- is largely uniform from the inner eyewall to about 100 nm radius. As a result, the radii of hurricane-force and tropical storm-force winds continues to expand as the pressure falls. While we don't know enough about dual eyewall structures or hurricanes in general to conclusively attribute this evolution to such a structure, but it seems as though that land interaction and/or dual eyewall structure *plus* less than ideal atmospheric conditions (here, dry air intrusion; with Gustav, upper-level shear) tends to lead to this combination of low surface pressures but not correspondingly maximum winds. Will these conditions change? It's tough to say. We don't know enough about inner core dynamics to determine this, leading there to be a lot of variability right now. Ultimately, a major hurricane is likely at landfall, but how major of one?

In summary, what is important is how the pressure falls change the pressure gradient, not so much just the pressure falls. Something in the storm is keeping the wind field from responding and it almost assuredly is the dual eyewall structure. How that evolves over the next day and a half will determine how the storm's wind field evolves up until landfall. Steady strengthening is possible as is a period of rapid intensification. Which will it be? Truly, it is tough to say.



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