(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 12 2008 12:46 AM
Re: Certain death...

Any low lying storm surge potential areas will be suseptical to deadly conditions. The NHC wants to make that clear! Anyways, I still dont think IKE will be more than a Cat 2 or winds of 105-110mph. The reason is what I said above. The Storm is just too big. The NHC wont mention this until after landfall probably but are still going with a Cat 3 just incase.

Now let me give you a example with the storm size and why its not getting stronger. If you would fill up your sink with water. Put your finger in the sink and spin it around "almost" near the edge of the water at a moderate rotation, see how the water spins. Now do the same thing with the water only half that full. You can
see the water turning quicker 'Even Though' your moving it as the same speed before. Its harder for a storm thats bigger in size to adjust a tight inner core of winds. The winds on a bigger storm are expanded more away from the COC. A smaller storm would mean a tighter spin with the same pressure drop.

Anyways Cat 2 landfall near Matagorda Tx in 24-30 hrs.!


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