Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 12 2008 02:22 PM
Re: Ike Approaches Texas

Based on flight-level winds and dropsondes, it looks like Ike may still be slowly increasing its max intensity. Whether or not this actually represents intensification of the system is debatable. In a large, broad circulation like Ike, changes in internal organization can bring the max winds up even if the system as a whole is not getting any stronger. There is a lot of wind energy that has the potential to be redistributed.

The character of the storm has not changed... it is still a very large system and the main threat will be the storm surge and a prolonged period of heavy wind, especially along and north of the track of the center. They always say to not focus too much on the exact forecast track line, but in Ike's case it is also important to not focus too much on what the max wind is or is not.

Ike looks like it might be trying to close off a large eye, but it is having trouble on the western side so far. The shear mainly seems to be impinging on the east side of the storm, but thus far it seems to be having little effect on the storm itself, since it is the west side that is struggling at the moment. If Ike does close off an eye, that would probably result in some modest deepening of the central pressure and increase in max winds, but time is running out.



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