berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 23 2008 06:44 AM
Attachment
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version

Attached is last night's 23_00Z 200mb Analysis and please note the subtropical jet maxima and location of longwave trough. There are many examples of storm acquiring tropical storm status the moment a closed surface center is found. I have no way of knowing if what I'm looking at is a depression or a storm but it does look pretty darn good on satellite at the moment and some really cold tops. It wouldn't be hard to argue that the system is reorganizing itself farther south and this storm has any chance of maintaining itself struturally that is where it needs to be. As I said in a previous post; right now there is absolutely no way this system can encroach the US, not with that big longwave trough where it current is and the subrtopical jet maxima over the gulf coast. and up the eastern US coast. It would have to remain a shallow system to have any chance at all moving west where the upper air is favorable for development but once it gains vertical structure it can either remain stationary, or move north. That said, a few days from now things can change, Kyle is going to be much like Hanna; tough tough upper air environment.


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