berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Sep 24 2008 07:10 AM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version

It's not unusual for developing tropical systems to have multiple centers or vortices at the surface and develop near and under deep convection. As for SC, the answer is no. This low will be extratropical from the word go. There has been some discussion that a few days down the road it may develop sub-tropical or hybrid characteristics, but it is not forecasted to remain over water and over water enough time. It takes several days for extratropical lows to acquire tropical characteristics; why? Extratropical lows are cold core and deepen via baroclinic processes; differences in temperatures in air masses. Tropical lows are warm core and deepen is a pretty simple deal here, the ocean temperature. Extratropical lows require upper air support to sustain them. Initially tropical systems begin shallow; they work their way from bottom up. Now if a extratropical low gets stranded and stays out over water for awhile, it can lose it's cold core and become warm, then you're in business.


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