danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Oct 16 2008 03:29 AM |
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Major Hurricane Omar
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Note: this post is 24 to 25 hours after the above post. What a difference a day makes... What a horrible night~ danielw
As of the latest Advisory. Major Hurricane Omar has 115mph sustained winds and will pass very close to, or over the island Of St Croix.
MCP measured by the latest RECON pass is 967mb.
Latest METAR from CHRISTIANSTED TISX, located at 17.7N/ 64.8W follows:
TISX 160253Z AUTO 01034G51KT 1 3/4SM BR BKN010 BKN021 OVC036 24/23 A2943 RMK AO2 PK WND 01051/0244 RAE38 PRESFR SLP966 P0065 60149
Translation:
Conditions at: TISX (CHRISTIANSTED, VI) observed 0253 UTC 16 October 2008
Temperature: 23.9°C (75°F)
Dewpoint: 23.3°C (74°F) [RH = 96%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.43 inches Hg (996.7 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 996.6 mb]
Winds: from the N (10 degrees) at 39 MPH (34 knots; 17.7 m/s)
gusting to 59 MPH (51 knots; 26.5 m/s)
Visibility: 1.75 miles (2.82 km)
Ceiling: 1000 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1000 feet AGL
broken clouds at 2100 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 3600 feet AGL
Weather: BR (mist)
Not a good night for sleeping.
Possibly the worst scenario of Major Hurricane Omar is it's direction of movement. Most of the tropical sustems that pass through the Eastern Caribbean Sea move from East to West. Pushing any waves and tidal surge away from the islands.
Omar is moving to the NE at this time pushing waves and surge toward the Southwestern facing beaches and bays of the various islands.
Quick calculation of the possible surge depth is deltaP divided by 4.
1013-970= 43mb / 4 = 10.75feet of Possible Surge.
Significant wave height calculation is deltaP x 0.20.
43 x 0.20 = Possible significant wave height of 8.6meters or 28.21 feet.