Cat 5orBust
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Nov 04 2008 03:34 PM
Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean

I don't really trust those model runs yet as many of them have been initiating the center a little bit south of where the center may be located or re-locating to. If this does develop, and it appears it will, as there is an anticyclone right over it and wind shear to its north does not seem to be an issue as of right now, then the models will get a better handle on things once an official center is used. I know the models turn it northeast and that will happen at some point, but there is a lot of speculation as to how strong the trough and how far south it will push. With it being election day, not many people paying attention to this feature, but I would't rule South Florida out of the potential path just yet. Not only that, but if it gets its act together, this could strengthen into something a bit more than what early intensity runs are showing. I don't think it will reach a high end cat 2 as the HWRF model had earlier, but it would not be surprisng if it did reach hurricane strength which not many models call for right now. People in the Caribbean, S. FL, and the Bahamas should start to pay a bit more attention as this feature is flying under the radar right now with all the focus on the election.


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