I don't think we'll see much of Paloma coming off Cuba. The projected rise in shear should cripple the storm. Her small size I would think would make her less resilient to shear/land interaction. I keep thinking about all the storms this year that hit Cuba and we thought they'd reintensify and they never did. The last NHC discussion talking about the different directions the storm will be pulled in made it sound like there is a buzz saw waiting for Paloma. The sooner the better!
That being said, the fact that it looks as "good" as it does (unless you're in it) and is tracking south of the forecast track concerns me. I see what you're saying about the trough. Not a fun day in the Caribbean...
Well the 1000 NHC Discussion answers these questions:
RADAR FROM CAMAGUEY AND REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE SUGGEST
THAT PALOMA IS STARTING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH
CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS NOTED. THIS STRUCTURE...COMBINED WITH SHEAR
THAT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TODAY...SUGGESTS THAT SLOW WEAKENING IS
LIKELY. HOWEVER...PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UP
THROUGH LANDFALL. THEREAFTER A RAPID WEAKENING SEEMS PROBABLE DUE
TO THE EFFECTS OF LAND AND RATHER HIGH SHEAR FORECAST BY ALL GLOBAL
MODELS. THIS WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
PALOMA COULD START TO DISSIPATE IN A FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL INITIALLY AND THEN IS A
BLEND OF THE REST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AFTER LANDFALL IN CUBA.
THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AND APPEARS TO
BE MOVING AT 060/8. NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED
IN THE SHORT-TERM...REQUIRING AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE NHC
FORECAST. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
PALOMA WILL DECOUPLE AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL BE LEFT BEHIND
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE
FORECAST IN THE LATER PERIODS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ISN'T TOO
FAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS WORTH EMPHASIZING THAT PALOMA
WILL LIKELY BE QUITE WEAK AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE WESTWARD AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR.