It appears that you area on the right track... if not dead on the track.

I saw the hand-off phrase at 6 AM this morning. And thought it odd. But at that time the models hadn't bumped the forward speed up.

Also appears that the NWS Offices were caught off guard by the NHC's hand off phrase. I basing my comment off of what was sent out in the Morning AFD's.

Here's another angle. Hypothetical situation here: Ida increases forward speed just enough to miss the turn... We could then have a landfalling Hurricane with ONLY the western side of the landfall area being warned. OOPS

I'll leave NOAA alone.

.. If you are reading this from a location west of Appalachcola,FL to Grand Isle or Houma, LA.
Please keep a close eye or ear on the weather.
This situation is changing... to some degree every 3 to 6 hours.
So pack a few things and think about what you will do if a HURRICANE Watch or Warning is issued later today or tomorrow.
.