berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Jun 29 2010 12:22 PM
Re: Alex will become a hurricane.

I disagree with Alex undergoing rapid intensification. There is no evidence on satellite imagery to believe Alex is going to "bomb out" today and undergo rapid intensification.

1. It is a huge system.
2. There is no complete inner core
3. Piece of long wave trough has broken off over TX with small upper lows over TXOK and NM has depicted on water vapor imagery.
4. Winds aloft over TX are from the SW and over LA from the N as depicted on water vapor.
5. Upper low over the Hudson Bay continues to dig and sink southward pinching the Bermuda Ridge south with axises over the entire Gulf coast and to the south over the FL peninsula with flow there from the N to the S
6. Upper low off the east coast of FL
7. Alex is elongated from North to South; shear is about 10 knots N to S
8. Flow over TX being SW to NE and over Alex N to S is indicative of either a bubble high between TX and Alex or an extension of the Bermuda High between the two ever so narrow.
9. Discussion out of Slidell, LA talks about an inverted trough over the state...Two schools of thought...one's Alex and the other is the trough over TX and a piece of shortwave energy is rotating inverted around it, albeit weak.

Conclusion....Alex will become a hurricane; pressure is indicative it should be, but too many negative factors for rapid intensification...

Now...watch me be wrong....Waiting on the 29/12Z Upper Air package!

Y'all have a nice day...



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