Update - 1130PM EDT Tuesday, Sept 7, 2010
Just a quick note to mention that Ex-Gaston has weakened again and that recent movement north of due west is likely to drive what remains of the wave into Haiti on Wednesday.
The wave off of Africa looks a little better this evening (Invest 91L) but its still going to take a couple of days for the system to organize.
Update - 8PM EDT Tuesday, Sept 7, 2010
Ex-Gaston system located about 65 miles south of Puerto Rico at 08/00Z moving west at 18 knots with sustained winds of 25 to 30 knots and a central pressure of 1009MB. It was at this point in time that some of the model runs about 4 days ago suggested that the system would enter an environment a little more suited to development – and the convective activity this evening is the best that the wave has mustered in quite some time. Its hard to recall that this system was actually a tropical storm six days ago when it was barely off the African coast. Most of the intensity models still develop the system into a hurricane in three days while moving it generally westward through the northern Caribbean – and a potential threat to Jamaica after that. Bottom line is that the Ex-Gaston system still has potential for redevelopment.
Hermine is now well inland near Brady, Texas, at 08/00Z as a Tropical Depression moving north at 16 knots with sustained wind of 30 knots. Although Hermine will soon become extra-tropical in nature, the storm will continue to bring heavy rains to central and eastern Texas and Oklahoma and to points north and northeast over the next few days. Significant flooding is likely in those areas.
Invest 91L is a large active wave located near the southeastern Cape Verde Islands moving west at 10 knots with potential for slow development in a few days
Update - 11AM EDT Tuesday, Sept 7, 2010
Hermine is still a minimal Tropical Storm south of San Antonio, Texas, moving north with heavy rainfall expected in large portions of central and eastern Texas and Oklahoma and extra-tropical transition expected soon.
The remnants of former Gaston are moving through the northern Caribbean Sea – still flaring convection from time to time but current chances for regeneration are low.
A strong tropical wave located just off the west African coast will have a better chance for additional development when it moves westward away from the coast – a process that will take a few days.
Update - 10PM EDT Monday, Sept 6, 2010
"DATA FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 830 PM CDT...0130 UTC
...ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM
...SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL
WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 MPH"
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
Recon investigation of Ex-Gaston found that the tropical wave was poorly organized and that the environment has become a little less favorable for redevelopment.
Update - 8PM EDT Monday, Sept 6, 2010
Hermine now located about 80 miles south southeast of Brownsville, Texas. Sustained winds have increased to 65mph and recon reports central pressure down to 991MB. No changes in Watches/Warnings. Forward speed is a bit of a problem in that NHC states a movement to the northwest at 14mph but Brownsville radar shows that the eye has been stationary for at least an hour. No doubt the uncertainty will all be resolved before the next full advisory at 11PM.
Update - 3PM EDT Monday, Sept 6, 2010
Satellite presentation suggests that Hermine has continued to intensify and Recon will arrive at the center soon to determine if the storm has reached hurricane strength. Hermine continues to move to the north northwest although the forward speed seems to have picked up - landfall likely this evening in the Mexico/Texas border area. Residents in that area should prepare for hurricane conditions this evening. As the storm expands after landfall, torrential rainfall and flash flooding are likely in northeast Mexico and south Texas.
Update - 10AM EDT Monday, Sept 6, 2010
Earlier this morning TD Ten intensified and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Hermine, the eighth storm of the season. Hermine is currently located about 275 miles south southeast of Brownsville, Texas, moving to the north at 10mph with sustained winds of 45mph and a central pressure of 999MB. Tropical Storm Warnings are posted for northeast Mexico and southern Texas as follows:
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
Hermine should move north to north northwest toward the Mexico/Texas border area while continuing to intensify. SSTs are a toasty 31C and, except for some northerly windshear to the east, conditions are excellent for additional development - perhaps more than currently projected. Considerable rainfall is likely in the northeast Mexico and south Texas coastal areas.
Matamoros, Mexico, Weather Reports
The remnant low of former Gaston was located at 17.5N 56.0W at 06/14Z or about 400 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. The disorganized system should continue to move generally westward for the next couple of days and should bring showers and gusty winds to the northern Islands tonight and Tuesday. Conditions are still somewhat favorable for re-development of this system which may ultimately meet its final demise over the mountains of Hispaniola on Wednesday.
Caribbean Weather Reports
A strong tropical wave moved off the coast of western Africa this morning and it should be watched for additional development later this week.
Update - 12AM EDT Monday, Sept 6, 2010
At 06/03Z Invest 90L was upgraded to Tropical Depression 10. The TD was located about 200 miles east southeast of Tampico, Mexico, moving slowly to the north. An eventual turn to the north northwest is likely and the cyclone could reach tropical storm strength before landfall in northeast Mexico Tuesday morning.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.
At 8PM EDT this Sunday evening, the tropical wave associated with the former Gaston was located about 450 nautical miles east of Guadeloupe in the Leeward Islands. INVEST 09L has been moving to the west and sometimes just south of due west at 15mph. For the past two days the system has sporadically shown signs of redevelopment but it has also sporadically succumbed to shear and dry air. There is still a high chance that Ex-Gaston will redevelop so folks in the Leeward Islands should monitor this system as it moves west to west southwest over the next few days
A disturbance in the far southwest Gulf of Mexico at the tail end of a trough also has a high chance of development although the system is situated very close to land and was located just offshore northeast of Veracruz, Mexico, at 06/00Z. Veracruz was reporting light rain and a pressure of 1006MB – but the wind has remained calm there for the past few hours. The disturbance is expected to move north northwest for the next couple of days and bring heavy rain to northeast Mexico.
Tampico, Mexico, Weather Conditions
Another strong tropical wave will exit the west coast of Africa on Monday and it has moderate potential for future development.
Texas Hourly Weather Reports