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Matthew is a complex situation. He will move inland in 36hrs or so in Nicaragua-Honduras boarder near 15N and brush the N coast and weaken to a TD near Belieze. After that.. most bests are off until we find out what is really going to happen downstream with the trough digging down and if another low pressure forms further east. Probably wont be until Sunday 24hrs after landfall will we get a better picture or continues agreements between the GFS and ECMWF on what might form/happen
You made my life easy tonight....I've looked at the 24/00Z package this evening...nothing like a bag full of marbles being blown up and sent no matter which way. GFS appears to be showing two distinct systems in the long range and if Matthew is anything like Karl which actually deepened and strengthened while over land; Matthew should remain a distinct cyclone for the duration. The evolving and future shortwave will deepen and become a rather strong cutoff low and slowly exit stage northeast but not before remaining in the mid-South for a couple of days. A pair of ridges, west and over the Atlantic and trough over the east will set the stage for a COL and by definition a very weak steering pattern for the cyclone. Stay tune....
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Re: TS Matthew