(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 26 2010 12:53 AM
Re: Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean

Alot of confusion still going on with the models coming out @ OZ Sunday morning here still. I still feel we cant take any model for granted until we get some kinda of broad low pressure system Monday night or Tuesday north of Honduras. I think we have to wait then @ least 24 if not 48hrs before we really can get a grasp. I would go along right now with the ECMWF only cause the GFS has been really confused on what to make of this all.

From what we can tell, we will have a good trough digging down Mon-Friday into the SE U.S. Low pressure
in the NW carribean will be very broad and will have impulses inside the broad low that will then tele-connect with a frontal trough from the main trough over the S.E. United States as it digs down south of 30N to 20N and near 82-85W. The impulses will respond and move along the trough. Dry air will be on the back side of this trough over the central and northern GOM. How far east this trough makes it by Friday will determine who will see what. if your west of the trough, you will get a few light showers and high clouds, east of the trough and along the low pressure, you will get heavy amounts of rain, gusty winds and heavy rainfall amounts for 4+ inches.

Finally, again we don't know yet where this trough will set up and how fast the low pressure moves up along the trough and how deep the impulse will be, it may be just a impulse of lower pressure around 998mbs as subtropical storm moving NE getting sheared or it might be a little stronger around 990mbs with a good strong band out ahead and to its east (cause it wont be concentrated too much near the COC due to dry air to its west and shear). Still its 5 days out @ least, we will find out probably in 36hrs-48hrs what might happen in strength and placement. Disregard anything south of Cuba in the long range 5-7days as models are really having issues past day 4 right now.

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