(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 27 2010 09:25 PM
Re: West Caribbean Disturbance

Looks as though this system is very slow to evolve even more then I thought it would by now, Theres a serious lack in convective organization and very hard to find a low pressure center anywhere as it looks quite broad right now. I would believe that by tomorrow there will be something just south of western Cuba moving north-northeast probably still not very organized given the increasing amount of shear it will encounter in the straits. My best guess a tropical storm until reaching Floirda near Naples/Monroe mainland area becoming subtropical strom crossing Floirda as it rides the front northeast. Not sure about the GFDL strength Cat 1 or even 2 offshore Floirda east coast looks a little much but will need to be watched.

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