weathernet
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 28 2010 10:43 AM
Re: Wave in Western Caribbean May Form Today. Rain For Southeast Florida

Thats very interesting that the initial fix would be at 20.2 N and 82.8 W. Not unreasonable given the area of most visible LLC rotation. However, this circulation currently would appear rather elongated and extend to the Southwest. Given the broad nature of this system, I think that it would not be unrealistic to potentially see an adjustment to the positioning. Recon will certainly aid significantly in helping to determine if this evolving system might in fact be developing closer to 19N and 85W, where convection continues to re-fire ( albeit being impacted by moderate shear ). Also will be interesting to see if the far more impressive convective area just to the southeast does in fact start to rotate around the initial position, or it turns out to be transient and decreases with time. This too, might aid overall convergence so that "whatever" LLC might better consolidate. Though near term and future motion would seem to be fairly clustered by most reliable models, the ultimate positioning of the system will certainly have an impact on how much rain or wind parts of Cuba, South Florida, Bahamas and points north might see.


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