MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Oct 12 2010 07:27 PM
Re: Paula RECON

Quote:

For you gurus out here, with Paula being stronger and all the discussion and flip flop of the models, is it reasonable to assume that South Fla could now be in its sights?




There's some discussion of this in the forecast lounge, but in general it's still not likely to affect S. Florida much, or if it did reach it would be on the weak side due to shear and fast moving, so likely not too much of a flood threat.

You can see the shear in the Gulf on the system now with the Water vapor loop. This would force it to the east quickly and tear up the system.

The system is in the cone, and some of the GFS suite and NOGAPS models have it approaching S. Florida, but the majority of everything else keeps it far to the south. It's a small system and uncertainty is high, that fact alone makes it worth watching closely.

But in general, for south Florida, since it is in the "cone" it is worth watching, but right now it still isn't very likely to do much.



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center