At this point, I can't imagine this will be a Tropical Depression at 5PM, the low is extremely broad and not very organized. In addition, there isn't a very well defined concentration of persistent thunderstorm activity. And while I'm sure there are cases where storms looked worse and were still designated a Tropical Depression, both factors above will probably keep it from designation.

If it has more thunderstorm activity, or the pressure gradient tightens up, it'll get designated IMO. It needs one or the other to happen first though.

Even though the HH sent a Vortex message, that doesn't automatically mean it'll get upgraded. Ultimately the NHC makes the call. and I don't see them pulling the trigger at 5PM.