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Irene has been trending NE of its projected path, so if this continues it might stay offshore from the FL and head into GA or SC. In addition she a bit strong then originally projected which should draw her more N. She was looking really good about midday yesterday but this AM is looking more ragged, so the island disrupted her just a bit. However she was projected to be south of PR just two days ago so I'm not buying a FL landfall at this point. Historical plots also favor a more NE trend. Outflow looks good on all side except the E where a pocket of dry air still remains.
I have to disagree somewhat with you in how she is.. I think she looks better than 24hrs ago..especially after going over land and small mountains of Puerto Rico. She has though always stayed 100miles NE of each Model point after 6hrs. Unless she starts showing a due W movement in the near term, Florida will be off the hook... which is 3 days out.
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Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico