LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Aug 22 2011 01:54 PM
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico

It's important not to focus on the 4 and 5 day forecast right now as said earlier the margin of error is very a few hundred miles. The margin of error on the 3 day cone is excellent. Everyone from South Florida to Long Island is beginning to obsess on the point of landfall five days away. That is normal.

It's important to remember what the NHC says and that is to focus on the cone not the line. It's hard to do but it's imperative. If you are in the far right or left part of the Cone the NHC feels it could be there in 4 or 5 days. Time and time again the small shifts in a cone every six hours equates to a large spread down the road.

Many factors will affect this storm.. every "jog" west or east will influence the next track. The important point if you live in the Carolinas or Florida or beyond is to keep watching. For the people in the islands now or in the Bahamas this is a serious problem now...

Also, how much interaction she has with DR may have an effect on her as for speed of forward motion as well as intensity.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

A lot of factors will affect this storm, most far to the north of her.



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